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Hurricane Preparedness
Village of Doral Lakes  >  Hurricane Preparedness

TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE PREPARATION

TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE PREPARATION
Hurricane season begins June 1st of each year and ends November 30th. Florida can be threatened any time during this season.  This information will help you prepare for a hurricane. Please take the time to read this information carefully.

The following are some useful definitions:

• TROPICAL DEPRESSION has winds of less than 39 miles per hour or 34 knots.
• TROPICAL STORM has winds from 39 to 73 miles per hour or 34 to 63 knots.
• TROPICAL STORM “WARNING” once issued, can develop into a hurricane. 
• HURRICANE “WATCH” - a hurricane may threaten the area within 24-36 hours.
• HURRICANE “WARNING” - a hurricane is expected to strike the area within 24 hours or less.
• HURRICANE has winds of greater than 74 miles per hour or 64 knots.
            Category 1 74-95 MPH Minimal
            Category 2 95-110 MPH Moderate
            Category 3 111-130 Major
            Category 4 131-155 Extensive
            Category 5 156 MPH + Catastrophic

WHAT CAN YOU DO TO BE READY IN THE EVENT OF A DISASTER?

 

Before the Storm
Preparing in advance for hurricane season can determine not only how safely and comfortably you ride out the storm, but also how easily it is to handle the days and weeks after the storm has passed.  Take a look at the information collected below to learn how you can prepare in the days and weeks before a hurricane.

Plan your stay or evacuation:

Stay Home: However, before you choose this option, make sure you know your elevation. If we experience a storm that may put a significant storm surge in your home, you need to look at the other options. Also, people in manufactured and mobile homes cannot use this option. Mobile homes and manufactured homes are not built to withstand the high winds associated with tropical storms and hurricanes.

Stay With a Friend or Relative Who has a Safe Place: If this is your plan, make arrangements in advance. You need to make sure that where you are going is safe. It defeats the purpose of evacuating if you go to an unsafe place.

Relocate Out of the Area: You may wish to travel out of harm’s way. Be sure to bring a road map and make sure that your car is full of fuel. Stay away from major bodies of water. Make arrangements in advance if you can. If you decide to use this option, go early, traffic will be heavy if you leave at the last minute, and you may not make it to your destination.

Emergency Public Shelters: For more information on Emergency Shelters and a list of available Public Shelters please visit a county Public Library or Publix Super Market near you.

Have a 72-Hour Survival Kit
You should plan to be self-sufficient for at least 72 hours (3 days) during and after a disaster. You should anticipate no water, electrical power, or utilities for that period of time. To ensure the comfort of your family, whether at home or evacuated to another location please download and print the Hurricane Survival Kit (PDF).

Tropical Weather Outlook

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Graphics

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 17:47:30 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 17:47:30 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 15:29:32 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 17:47:08 GMT


000
ABNT20 KNHC 161747
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eight, near the coast of the Carolinas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight (AT3/AL082024)

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 17:46:37 GMT

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Eight was located near 33.1, -78.3 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory Number 4A

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 17:46:37 GMT

Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 


000
WTNT33 KNHC 161746
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082024
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
 
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS ONGOING ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 78.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet,
North Carolina
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next few hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 
33.1 North, longitude 78.3 West. The system is moving toward the 
north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northwestward motion is 
expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the low 
will reach the coast of South Carolina by this evening and then 
move inland across the Carolinas tonight through early Wednesday.
 
Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have 
decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued 
weakening is expected during the next day or so, especially after 
the system moves inland. The low is forecast to dissipate over the 
Carolinas by early Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) 
from the center. A NOS station at Wrightsville Beach, North 
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and 
a gust of 40 mph (65 km/h). A C-MAN station at Masonboro Inlet, 
North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 32 mph (52 
km/h) and a gust of 40 mph (65 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions within the warning area are 
expected to diminish through late this afternoon.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge.
 
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 4 to 8 inches
of rainfall, with isolated totals near 10 inches, across portions of
northeast South Carolina and southeast North Carolina into tonight.
Across the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall,
with isolated totals near 6 inches, is expected through Tuesday.
Over much of Virginia, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with locally
higher amounts, is expected tonight through Wednesday. This rainfall
could lead to a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river
flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes may occur through this evening across
eastern North Carolina.
 
SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the
southeastern United States through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Local Statement for Wilmington, NC

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 15:12:37 GMT

Issued at 1112 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Local Statement for Charleston, SC

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 15:11:41 GMT

Issued at 1111 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 15:03:13 GMT

Issued at 1102 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Discussion Number 4

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 14:52:07 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 


000
WTNT43 KNHC 161452
TCDAT3
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082024
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
 
The low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring off the 
Carolina coast has not become better organized this morning. The 
low-level circulation remains elongated and not well defined, based 
on overnight data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and recent 
visible satellite images. The flight-level temperature data from the 
aircraft also suggested a frontal boundary remains in close 
proximity to the low, which is consistent with the cloud pattern of 
the system. The strongest winds and heaviest rains lie to the north 
and northeast of the estimated center and are currently spreading 
across southeastern North Carolina. Based on surface synoptic 
observations, the initial intensity is set at 45 kt.

Aircraft data and satellite images indicate the elongated center 
lies a bit north of previous estimates, with an uncertain initial 
motion of north-northwestward at 4 kt. This general motion should 
continue today, bringing the center toward the coast of South 
Carolina and inland within the warning area later today. However, it 
should be noted that much of the hazardous weather conditions extend 
well to the northeast of the center and are currently moving onshore 
over the Cape Fear region of North Carolina. A northwestward motion 
is forecast to continue over land while the weakening low spins 
down. The updated NHC track forecast lies a bit to the right of the 
previous prediction based on the latest track consensus aids.

With limited time before it moves inland, the chances of this system 
becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone continue to decrease. The 
intensity guidance shows quick weakening once the low crosses the 
coastline, and the official NHC intensity forecast brings the system 
down to 30 kt in 12 h, on the lower end of the guidance envelope but 
consistent with the global model fields. Weakening should continue 
through dissipation, which is forecast to occur on Wednesday.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical
Storm Warning area during the next several hours.
 
2. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding and minor river 
flooding is possible across southeast North Carolina and northeast 
South Carolina through tonight. There is also a risk of isolated 
flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region 
through Wednesday.
 
3. Coastal flooding and high surf are likely along portions of
the southeastern U.S. coast through this afternoon.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 32.9N  78.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  17/0000Z 33.7N  79.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  17/1200Z 34.3N  79.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  18/0000Z 35.0N  80.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 14:51:36 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 


000
FONT13 KNHC 161451
PWSAT3
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082024               
1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FAYETTEVILLE   34  7   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SURF CITY NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
FLORENCE SC    34 12   6(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
LITTLE RIVER   50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34 55   2(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  9   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Advisory Number 4

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 14:50:17 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 


126 
WTNT23 KNHC 161450
TCMAT3
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082024
1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2024
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N  78.3W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE   0SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE  90SE 120SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N  78.3W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N  78.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 33.7N  79.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.3N  79.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.0N  80.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N  78.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Depression Gordon Graphics

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 14:49:41 GMT

Tropical Depression Gordon 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 14:49:41 GMT

Tropical Depression Gordon 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 15:22:52 GMT

Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 21

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 14:47:36 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 


000
WTNT42 KNHC 161447
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024
 
Deep convection has persisted, since last night, mainly over the 
eastern portion of the circulation of Gordon.  This activity is 
limited and not particularly well organized however, with the 
coldest cloud tops near -70 deg C.  Based on a subjective Dvorak 
classification from TAFB and objective intensity estimates from 
UW-CIMSS, the advisory intensity is set at 30 kt.
 
The cyclone has been moving generally westward over the past day or 
so while embedded in the flow on the south and southeast side of a 
mid-level ridge.  During the next couple of days, the ridge is 
forecast to shift westward and weaken while a trough digs to the 
north and northeast of Gordon.  This flow evolution, along with the 
interaction with a developing frontal cyclone about 10 degrees to 
the north of the tropical cyclone, should result in a turn toward 
the north in 36 hours or so.  Some of the global models are showing 
a partial merger of Gordon with the frontal wave, but it appears 
likely that the system will remain distinct as a tropical cyclone 
throughout the forecast period.  The official track forecast has 
been shifted somewhat to the east of the previous NHC prediction, 
and is near or west of the dynamical model consensus tracks.

Westerly vertical wind shear over Gordon has abated, but the 
environment is still a bit dry.  The dynamical guidance indicates a 
further decrease in shear with some increase in low- to mid-level 
humidities in a few days while the system remains over warm waters. 
Therefore, restrengthening is forecast to begin around 60 hours, 
in general agreement with the latest intensity model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 19.1N  48.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 19.2N  48.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 19.5N  49.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 19.9N  49.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 20.5N  49.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  19/0000Z 21.6N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 23.1N  47.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 26.0N  45.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 28.0N  45.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Tropical Depression Gordon (AT2/AL072024)

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 14:47:07 GMT

...GORDON SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 16 the center of Gordon was located near 19.1, -48.1 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Gordon Public Advisory Number 21

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 14:47:07 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 


000
WTNT32 KNHC 161447
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024
 
...GORDON SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 48.1W
ABOUT 985 MI...1580 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 48.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A
gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest at a slower
forward speed is expected during the next day or so, followed by
a turn toward the north and north-northeast by Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Advisory Number 21

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 14:47:07 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 


000
WTNT22 KNHC 161446
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072024
1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  48.1W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  48.1W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  47.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.2N  48.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N  49.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.9N  49.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.5N  49.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.6N  48.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.1N  47.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.0N  45.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 28.0N  45.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N  48.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Depression Gordon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 14:47:07 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 


000
FONT12 KNHC 161447
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072024               
1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

  
NHC Status Updates

Important Links

 City of Doral
  Emergency Management

Important Links and Contacts
  Disasterhelp.org
  F.E.M.A
  O.S.H.A

The City of Doral encourages residents to sign up to receive Emergency Messages as well as to the Weather Warning System, an automated severe weather alerting service. The CodeRED system provides Doral officials the ability to quickly deliver messages to targeted areas or the entire city in case of an emergency. “All Doral individuals and business owners should take the time to visit our website and add contact information to include cellular phones and other non-traditional phones as well as email and text addresses. If your contact information is not in the database you will not receive a call when an urgent message is sent,” said Doral Mayor Juan Carlos Bermudez. All businesses should register, as well as all individuals who have unlisted phone numbers, who have changed their phone number or address within the past year, and those who use a cellular phone or VoIP phone as their primary number Residents and business owners click here to register for CodeRed. Required information includes a street address (physical address, no P.O. boxes) for location purposes and a primary phone number. Additional phone numbers, email and text addresses may also be entered CodeRED gives those who want to be included an easy and secure method for inputting information. The data collected will only be used for emergency notification purposes. About Emergency Communications Network Emergency Communications Network Inc. (ECN) provides affordable high-speed notification solutions capable of reaching millions of citizens in minutes. ECN’s sophisticated network supports a web-based product suite featuring CodeRED® which enables local government officials to communicate time-sensitive, personalized messages via voice, email and text messaging; CodeRED Weather Warning™ which provides automated alerts to citizens in the path of severe weather just moments after a warning has been issued by the National Weather Service; CheckUp Call™ for scheduling calls to check on at-risk individuals, including the elderly, infirm and latchkey kids; and CodeED® for use by school systems to improve communications with their communities. For more information about Emergency Communications Network, visit emergencycommunications.net